And the R.O.Y. is….

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LuckRG3

Wilson2012 will turn out to be one of the most controversial Rookie of the Year voting debates we have ever witnessed, and don’t be fooled at the thought that this race is over. With all 3 rookie QB’s in the playoffs, performances in the upcoming weeks will play a big part in the decision. The biggest debate for all 3 QB’s will be the help that surrounds them and Andrew Luck seems to be the biggest beneficiary for this subjective debate because he took a 2-14 team and turned them around. I have actually blogged in a separate article (click here) why this is a complete falacy but don’t forget Andrew is also throwing to Reggie Wayne. Yeah, he’s pretty good and the fact that this same Indianapolis team had one of the best records in NFL history for the 10 years prior to them using 3 QB’s who aren’t even in the NFL 1 year later, I think this argument is quite a stretch to give him such a prestigious honor.

Of these 3 QB’s, only Andrew Luck has a WR who’s in the top 10, with Reggie Wayne coming in at #7. Believe it or not, niether Wilson nor Robert Griffin III have a WR in THE TOP 40! Considering their accomplishments with “no name” receivers, that definitely has to be considered as a counter to the Luck argument of “turning the Colts around.”

Getting back to facts however, here are some of the major statistical categories and how each of the QB’s faired, with red text indicating the best of the 3.

STATISTICAL COMPARISONS

Russell Wilson Robert Griffin III Andrew Luck
Touchdowns: 26 by air, 4 by land Touchdowns: 20 by air, 7 by land Touchdowns: 23 by air, 5 by land
Passing Yards: 3,118 3,200 4,364
Yards per Attempt: 7.93 Yards per Attempt: 8.14 6.98
Percentage of completions thrown 31-40 yards: 62.5% Percentage of completions thrown 31-40 yards: 59.1% Percentage of completions thrown 31-40 yards: 50.3%
Percentage of completions thrown 21-30 yards: 60.6% Percentage of completions thrown 21-30 yards: 66.3% Percentage of completions thrown 21-30 yards: 49.3%
Interceptions (10): 1 per 39 passes Interceptions (5): 1 per 78.6 passes Interceptions (18): 1 per 34.8 passes
Rating: 100 Rating: 102.4 Rating: 76.5
Sacks: 33 Sacks: 30 Sacks: 41
Completion Percentage: 64.1 Completion Percentage: 65.6% Completion Percentage: 54.1
Wins: 11 (8-0 at home) Wins: 10 Wins: 11

In my mind this is clearly a 2 person race. What may sway the voters is the fact that if you trend statistics over the course of a season, Russell Wilson got progressively better while Andrew stayed steady and Robert Griffin III somewhat declined. Whatever the vote is, it will be interesting to say the least.

Is Seattle a 1 year wonder?

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imageWith the average NFL salary hovering around 1 million dollars, it’s no surprise that every year players shuffle around taking the next best offer.  Considering the risk these athletes take and the fact that most careers will end far short from what we hope, players must get as much money they can squeeze out of the NFL while they are able to play.  In 2013 there are 253 free agents expected to hit the market according to KFFL but the good news; only 4 Seahawks are on that list. Marcus Trufant and Leroy Hill are the two names that concern me most, so assuming the Seahawks can add some pieces and keep their current cast in place, this will be a dangerous team for years to come.  Another staggering number is that 30 Seahawks are 25 or younger at the time of this blog, making them one of the youngest teams in the NFL.   But that my friends, is the concern with this team when referring back to the dilemma for making  the most money you can, when you can.  With youth and talent, often comes delusions of grandeur.

So it’s to those future free agents that I dedicate this blog. Richard, Bruce, Golden, Sidney, Russell, Marcus, Bobby – don’t do it!  I realize everyone has that price point where they must accept an offer, but let’s put that aside and talk about the reasons why your best option is to stay in the Emerald City.  First off, Seattle is in just as good of shape to make a run for the Super Bowl that any team is. I mean, other than money, that’s the top reason to leave, right? Few names (of the many) to remind you of; Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Ichiro Suzuki, Ken Griffey Jr.  All these players had everything they ever wanted in cities that paid them well. Cities that worshipped them, and they all left to chase the ring. To date, 0 rings.  I still believe the Mariners would have multiple Championships if Griffey, Johnson and A-Rod had stayed put but that’s my Seattle bias coming out.  Just remember, the sum is greater than the individual parts and they may have all benefitted more by sticking together. Kind of like this 2012 Seahawks team.  Great TEAM, but the team has to stick together. You know better than anyone that a team can go from worst to first (or vice versa) very quickly so don’t be lured by false hope like these guys did.

Money isn’t everything: Now granted, I will never know the likes of a 1 million dollar pay raise but think long and hard before selling out. Alex Rodriguez is still referred to as Pay-Rod and over the long run, things haven’t worked out real well.  Perhaps he’s happy being the most hated player in the majors.  With that money comes tremendous expectation and he has set himself up to never live up to what is expected.  At some point, there is a balance with wealth and happiness. I don’t claim to know that equilibrium point, I just urge that you spend some time soul searching.

Maybe you don’t feel as though you’re being utilized and you can get more fame and fortune elsewhere. Three words, ok – so it’s 2 letters and 1 word but regardless: D J Hackett. Solid player, decent numbers, thought he could be a star in Carolina. I don’t think he made it one season before getting cut. Remember, it’s a team game and sometimes success is based in large part on that team chemistry and effort. Sure, he made a few more bucks in the short run at Carolina, but I’ll take the offer where I get 1 million per year for 5 years vs the 3 million over 2 years.  If this principle isn’t understood, call me – I’m an economist.

But the number one reason why this team should stick together… The 12th man. Heck, I don’t even need to elaborate on that, everyone already knows where the best and most passionate fans reside. Go Seahawks!

Andrew Luck; ESPN’s 2012 prima donna

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I keep hearing all these tales about the great Andrew Luck.  About how he has come in and taken a commanding lead for rookie of the year.  How he’s having one of the greatest seasons for a rookie QB ever.  How he has saved the Indianapolis franchise and has people asking, Peyton who?  Given all the statistical evidence at a bloggers fingertips, we live in an age where subjectivity and being a homer no longer cuts it.  Analysis paralysis reigns supreme and it’s time to burst the bubble known as the Andrew Luck Delusion of Grandeur.

Before shredding him like a piece of roast beef in Jared’s Subway sandwich, I will give him some props.  He has come in with big shoes to fill and given the talent around him, has performed much better than most people expected.  He is #8 in the league with 2,631 yards through week 9 but that’s where the fantasy ends and I must bring you to reality.  Considering those yards you must also consider that he’s thrown 364 passes, an average of 40 attempts per game and the 5th most passing attempts in the NFL.  Ok, so that’s a lot of passing but that doesn’t mean he isn’t being effective, he’s just thrown a lot of passes, right?  Wrong.  He’s #16 in terms of yards per attempt (7.27) and his completion percentage is 28th in the NFL.

Ok, maybe we’re not giving him a beneft of the doubt, I mean after all, that’s not the true measure of efficiency, the QB rating is a better measure, right?  Unfortunately for Mr. Luck, he ranks 26th in the NFL with a 79.1 rating.  More shocking, this inefficiency comes against some of the worst passing defenses in the league.  Of their 9 games, 6 of his opponents were ranked 20th or lower in terms of most yards allowed. And despite all that, Andrew has surpassed the 100 rating only twice this season, with a career high of 107.5.  To put that in perspective, his best game (against some of the worst defenses in the NFL) ranks as the 9th best game among rookie QB’s.  (Wilson leads the rookie class with 4 games topping the 100 rating mark).  Hopefully that grabs your attention so let’s do away with the comparison to other NFL quarterbacks and only look at his rookie peers.

More bad news for Luck and anyone who says he’s a shoe in for rookie of the year. In terms of completion percentage, only Brandon Weeden is worse.  The pecking order for completion percentage among rookies goes RGIII, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill and then Andrew Luck.  In terms of QB ratings; more bad news.  The rookie class ranks RGIII, Russell Wilson – and then Andrew Luck.  In terms of touchdowns thrown, this may be the biggest surprise considering how many passes he’s thrown.  He has only 10 TD’s on the season, ranking him 24th in the NFL and second in the rookie class behind Wilson (15).  I won’t even elaborate on TD’s per passing attempt, let’s just say Wilson is destroying the rookie class with a TD pass thrown for every 17 attempts, RGIII a very distant #2 given his TD thrown for every 33 attempts – and then Andrew at #3 given his “efficiency” of 1 TD pass for every 36.2 passes thrown

Now don’t get me wrong, I believe Andrew Luck will go on and have a tremendous career, perhaps go down in history as one of the greatest QB’s ever.  But this discussion isn’t about long term success, it’s about grading him based on what he’s doing now.  Everyone is on the Andrew Luck bandwaggon and although he’s good, he’s not an elite quarterback yet.  Heck, he’s not even in the top of his rookie class.  So don’t buy the hype because you’re desparate to find an heir apparent to the greatest QB ever to play the game.  Look at the facts and make an educated decision before making a statement that he’s a roookie of the year candidate.

Why Seattle doesn’t need an NBA team

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Maybe it was the fact I lived in Seattle during the great basketball days of the 90′s, or maybe it’s simply a childhood fantasy in which I have outgrown my love for the NBA.  Regardless, I’m just not torn up about the fact that Seattle doesn’t have an NBA franchise.  I just don’t see the NBA challenging the ”Big Four” in sports popularity anytime soon.   Any time a league has to put a rule in place to eliminate pre-game self promotional celebrations; that’s a bad thing.  We’ll just call that the LeBron rule and move on.  Let’s take a look at the NBA’s accomplishments recently.  Four lockouts since 1995.  A 27% decline in the opening night 2012 game compared to 2010.  (First game of the locked out 2011 season is excluded).  Some blame “power outages from Hurricane Sandy” but that sounds like a PR machine struggling for answers considering 660,000 people lost power, or roughly 0.002% of the U.S. population.  I’m no mathematician, but 0.002% of the U.S. population doesn’t seem to correlate well with a 27% drop in ratings.  So why has the NBA become the fourth option for sports fans? (maybe fifth if you looked at soccer)

PEOPLE WANT PARITY!  According to a quick search on parity in sports (a topic near and dear to my heart considering it was my Master’s thesis) it shows that the NBA has the second worst parity among the “Big Four.”  Ironically, the NFL is the league with the worst parity and may point to why they are experiencing a decline in attendance, but that’s a different blog entirely.  A blog in which I’ll need to recreate a parity analysis and explore more than just live attendance to show how the NFL is doing compared to other sports.  Considering the TV options, Red Zone, NFL Network, NFL Ticket – I hypothesize that the NFL is more popular than ever, folks are just choosing to view from different venues other than at the stadium.  Oh sorry, I got excited about my next blog topic – back to the NBA and why people are losing interest…

PEOPLE WANT STABILITY!  In my opinion, the biggest reason and perhaps trend that will continue to kill the NBA is the lack of stability.  Since 2000 they’ve had five teams relocate.  Overall since the NBA’s inception, they’ve relocated more teams than any other sport.  Folks, if you’re a business and you continue to get bought and sold to the next highest bidder, that’s NOT good for your image and probably not going to keep many fans.  Just ask fans in Baltimore how fond they are of the Colts.  Image is everything if you want people to buy your “product”.  For those wondering; MLB has moved 13 teams since 1903, NFL 13 since 1921, NHL 15 since 1920 and the NBA a whopping 24 since 1943.

Let’s say the Utah Jazz move to Seattle.  Is that really “our team”?  One year you’re rooting against them, and 10 years later they’re your team?  I realize with time that these things are forgotten but one of the great things about sports is being able to root for your city and have pride in that team.  With the NBA moving teams faster than a used car salesman can talk, it’s hard to get behind any of these teams.  So although I would love to see a team in Seattle, it could never be “my team”.  Jack Sikma.  Down Town Freddie Brown.  DJ.  The Rain Man.  That was a lineage.  A direct line of greatness passed from generation to generation.  That is the link that has been broken, that can never be restored.

QB or not QB – that is the question

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The QB controversy in Seattle seems to be pretty clear cut depending who you ask.  You prefer the traditional drop back passing QB and demand Matt Flynn, or you’re a run and gun, risk taking personality who thinks Russell Wilson is doing fine.  Before you start thinking about short jokes, a few facts to think about:

  • 85.6 QB rating (18th).  Ahead of traditional drop back passers such as Tony Romo, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck.
  • 62.5% completion percentage (16th).  Ahead of traditional drop back passers such as Andrew Luck, Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford.
  • 7.29 yards per attempt (higher than Aaron Rodgers, the #1 rated QB)
  • Only RGIII is having a better rookie campaign than Russell Wilson, or can we just call him RW1 from here on out since his style and fire is so close to that of RGIII?  (pronounced “R Dub 1″) Thank you, I think I will.

Granted these numbers are middle of the pack but consider Tom Brady’s first full year in New England: 86.5 rating, 63.9% completions and 12 interceptions.  The comparison is eary.  The only difference of course is that Tom Brady is a statue (it toook him 2 years to amass the same amount of yards RW1 has after 6 games).

So herein lies the problem with RW1, and I assure you it’s not his height.  The problem (other than people forgetting he’s a ROOKIE) is that everybody expects him to be the athletic QB he is, but at the same time wants him to be a conservative, stay in the pocket traditional QB.  Sorry folks but you can’t have both.  Telling RW1 to be a drop back passer is like telling Marshawn Lynch to run out of bounds before taking a big hit.  By trying to change his game, you’ve changed the type of player he is and he’s no longer as effective. So do you want a mediocre traditional QB, or a spectacular play maker; never knowing how he’s going to kill you next?  Considering the conservative play calling thus far, RW1 is still #5 in terms of rushing by a QB.  Only Cam Newton, Michael Vick, Colin Kaepernick and RGIII are ahead of RW1.  RW1 is also 4th in the league picking up first downs with his feet (8).  That’s kind of a big deal considering how the Seahawks have struggled picking up key first downs, or in Arizona – had 1st and goal from the 1 – but enough of my lamenting over the play calling that game.

Factor in the actual passing aspect and only RGIII has better passing numbers than RW1 when looking at the non-traditional QB’s.  In terms of fumbles, RW1 has only 2 on the season and only 7 players TOTAL have fewer fumbles, running style QB or otherwise.  To sum this up, if you factor in the balance of running and passing, RW1 seems to be the best overall QB among those labeled “non-traditional”.

Regardless of your preference, you have to admit that watching RW1 run around and make plays is absolutely spectacular.  One of his greatest runs was called back due to holding but the fact that he broke 2 tackles, ran right, ran left and turned it upfield for a 20 yard gain - WOW!  Of the 6 interceptions he has thrown this year, very few have been as he’s scrambling trying to make a play.  They’re thrown when he sits in the pocket and tries to be a traditional QB.  It’s also worthy to note that he has led 2 touchdown winning drives with less than 2 minutes on the clock and in the only 2 losses of the season, he had the Seahawks in a position to win it.

Not bad for a non-traditional, 5 foot 9 rookie drafted in the 3rd round.  This controversy should be short lived – RW1 is not only the quarterback of the future, he’s doing just fine in the here and now. 

Domination in Seattle

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Fans in Seattle will be the first to tell you that the Seahawks get no respect.  Good teams “find a way to win” and “defense wins championships”, no matter what the final statistics say. Isn’t that what the experts tell us?  Perhaps that’s what’s frustrating Seahawk fans, those age old rules don’t seem to apply to this team.  Despite a solid defense and uncanny habit to win close games, many experts are still saying the hawks are pretenders.  Fans shouldn’t panic however, this will turn out to be the best team ever to play in Seattle, and the critics can’t take that away.

Think about this, the Seahawks are 2 plays from being an undefeated 6-0.  If not for some questionable play calling at the goal line where three jump balls and a dropped pass was witnessed in Arizona… and another heartbreak loss when the wide receiver fell during his route on what appeared to be a game winning drive in St. Louis; the hawks would be sitting atop the NFC West and the offensive “struggles” probably wouldn’t seem quite as bad.  The Seahawks have been in every game this year, and currently have a 2-2 record in games that went down to the last minute.  Probably not something Seattle can boast from years past after only 6 games.

Unlike years past when it seems like every call goes against the hawks, this year’s team has found a way to win.  There was the infamous “possession” call with Golden Tate.  There was a closer than expected game and somewhat of a comeback trailing in the third at Carolina.  And against New England, maybe the most memorable game in Seahawks regular season history.  This was supposed to be the game that exposed the Seahawks.  A game to prove that the offense is so bad, not even the defense can save them.  Ultimately, a game that was supposed to prove that the Seahawks only have their defense to rely on, and this defense can’t win a championship.  This was a game that was going to define this team and guess what, it did just that.  Russell Wilson has now become the first rookie QB to lead 2 last minute scoring drives for game winning touchdowns.  Trailing most of the game and down by 13 points with only 7 minutes left, he led the Seahawks on TWO TD drives, 83 and 57 yards, with a 46 yard TD bomb to Sidney Rice for the win.  Add to that the fact that Seattle forced back to back 3 and outs (first time all season for New England), forced them to turnover the ball on downs with 30 seconds left and had some timely interceptions along the way; this was the kind of gritty win teams can only dream of.  This was indeed the kind of game that defined the 2012 Seattle Seahawks.

In monitoring twitter feeds during the game, many fans were not pleased about the defensive performance in which Tom Brady sat back and picked the secondary apart, amassing 395 yards and 2 touchdowns in the air. But consider this; Tom Brady came into the game with the third highest QB rating and only 1 interception.  They came in as the highest scoring offense in the NFL.  The Seahawks picked him twice at critical moments and held them to 10 points less than their season average.  The Patriots did not score a touchdown in the second half, the first time that this has happened all season.  That’s not a bad job, regardless of how many yards they finished with.  On the ground there was nowhere for them to run, which may have contributed to their decision to throw the ball 58 times.  They accumulated only 87 yards on the ground and failed to score a rushing touchdown for only the 2nd time.  Considering this was the #2 ranked running game averaging over 160 yards a game, (now ranked #4), and again – that’s not a bad effort for the Legion of Boom.

The haters will continue to tell us why the hawks shouldn’t have won or how a few plays here and there should have turned the game. And you’ll undoubtedly hear about replacement refs.  Don’t worry hawk fans, good teams find a way to win and this isn’t just a good team, they’re shaping up to be the best ever in Seattle.  Perhaps this is the year we can finally put 2005 behind us.

Bring it on 12th Man!!

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Bring the noise!

Anyone who has ever attended a football game at CenturyLink field will tell you that it’s one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL.  Seattle has always had a history of loud crowds.  Remember the Domed Dungeon of Doom – aka the “Kingdome?”  I distinctly remember a rule the NFL implemented to try and quiet the crowd; a 5 yard penalty if the QB couldn’t hear well enough to call the play.  And I do recall at least one penalty was thrown at our home team, but you should have heard how loud it got after that.  According to one report, even QB’s understood the long standing rule but nobody dared complain because it would just inflame the crowd even more.  False Start City – a town that has drawn more false starts than any other team since 2005 (112).  Remember in 2005 when we led the league in false starts (24) and drew a whopping 11 against New York?  That my friends is what we need to bring this Sunday against New England and quite frankly, I’m concerned that we’ve lost an edge over the past few years.  Please remember these common guidelines in helping bring the maximum pain to CenturyLink.

1)  PACE YOURSELF!  Remember, we need you loud for the whole game.  Don’t exert your full energy at meaningless times.  Many NFL analysts refer to our town as having the smartest fans, so let’s prove it.  Booing the opponent when they run on the field is fun, but again – waste of exertion.  Save it for when it counts and be smart!

2)  SILENT – OFFENSE AT WORK:  This gets back to pacing yourself. In reality, a moderate amount of noise doesn’t impact our offense but there is no reason to yell and cheer when our team is on offense.  Save your voice as best you can in case there is a moment when you need to dig REAL deep. Cheer for the big plays and touchdowns, but celebrate and then bow out quickly to save your voice.

3)  CHEER SMART:  I go to a lot of games where people will yell “Come on D” or “DEEFENSE!”  These are great but when you cheer, it needs to be a constant noise.  My preference is for a long drawn out, preferably high pitched “ooooooooooooooooo”.  Many audioloist will agree that a higher pitched, constant noise will have loner lasting effect and be more disturbing.  I have also found that this saves your voice and you can cheer for the entire game, rather than straining your vocal cords with a specific phrase you keep yelling over and over.

4)  TIMELY CHEERING:   Again, this all gets to pacing yourself but when we have the team pinned deep or it’s third and long on a critical play – you’ve gotta bring it with all you got.  So if you’re not as fanatic as others, at the least, get up and get loud on these key moments.

5) MEGAPHONE:  I’m still baffled as to why more people don’t bring megaphones or at the least, roll up a program to amplify the noise.  Just something to think about.  Personally, I’ve had 3 air horns confiscated that I tried to use during games. (the explanation was that it could “simulate” the whistle.  Riiiight.)  At any rate, my bad – but something to think about…

The Patriot game isn’t a must win but it’s certainly a key game to show that the Seahawks are for real.  So get out there, be smart and let’s bring it on Sunday.  Show them that we’re trying to recreate 2005, only this time, not to get screwed in the big game.  GO HAWKS!